Digging for Gold: Analyzing Data for Undervalued Players - First Base
Before I get to the meat and potatoes of my post, I want to be clear and say that the information posted on here is to help you become better informed when it comes to fantasy baseball by using data. Much of
my information is gathered from places such as FanGraphs and Statcast, which I then interpret for people looking to gain a step on their opposition. Will you find anything different then other bloggers or sites put out there? Maybe not. However, any extra information goes a long way and sometimes we don't find things we are looking for. I like digging through the data and finding players who may be overlooked or can help someone make a sound judgement. I know that there is many amateur baseball enthusiasts out there that scour the internet for fantasy baseball advice. Who knows, maybe you will find this blog insightful, maybe not. I am open to taking questions or looking into certain players for people. It is a hobby of mine.
What to expect: Very in-depth look at players. I know many sites incorporate certain data points, but I like to include almost everything you can think of to make an informed decision.
Here is the league average on certain data points (plate discipline, exit velocities, and barrels) for hitters.
If you are a beginner to data, let me explain the data points I have included. Some of the ones that may be confusing to interpret are Z-Swing% which is how often a batter swings at a pitch inside of the strike zone, while O-Swing% is how many times a batter swings at a pitch outside of the zone. I have included launch angle and exit velocity due to the league moving into this direction. Barrels/BBE is a relatively new data point that stands for "barrels per batted ball event." Basically, in layman's terms, the more you connect with the ball with barrel of your bat, the better! Link to statcast explaining barrel zone
So with that out of the way - let's get digging! First position I want to look into is 1B.
Once the "big boppers" are off the board, we are always searching for someone that can do a lot of good in more than one category. First, I like to do a blind analysis on two players, just giving their stats, no names. First let us look at their full season stats from 2018.
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Now let's talk about the data. Player A's xSLG and xwOBA are significantly higher than their outcomes. This means they had some unfortunate luck and should have had a better season than what they had. They were still above league average, but according to their Expected Outcomes, they should have had an even better season. Player B on the other hand might have had a little luck on their side, but not too much. Even with their Expected Outcomes down, they still had ratios WAY above league average, but much more closer to Player A.
So you might be thinking...why these players? Well Joey Votto is always ranked in top 10 if not top 6 in 1B rankings. I get it, he has a proven track record and one down season shouldn't sway his ranking so much. Max Muncy? He is all over the map. Sometimes top 10, top 15, and sometimes not even top 20! The justification of this post is that Muncy deserves more love and quite frankly we have to wonder if Father Time is catching up to Votto. I no longer believe he is going to hit 30 + homers, but the rankings should reflect this. I can see him hitting 18-23 homers with better counting stats due to a better lineup around him this year. You know you can count on him being a high AVG/OBP guy which is always a plus. When it comes to drafting a player, I want upside and Muncy has more upside than Votto. I think Muncy can easily replicate his homer total from last year of 35. He has the plate discipline, great exit velocities, and approach to do it. Although he won't have the same OBP as Votto, he will still be solid in this department as he is above league average in taking walks. Again, it comes down to what you want and/or need. I think you can get Muncy for a lot cheaper than Votto and the other top 1B on the board. This is the type of steal that I am looking for.
my information is gathered from places such as FanGraphs and Statcast, which I then interpret for people looking to gain a step on their opposition. Will you find anything different then other bloggers or sites put out there? Maybe not. However, any extra information goes a long way and sometimes we don't find things we are looking for. I like digging through the data and finding players who may be overlooked or can help someone make a sound judgement. I know that there is many amateur baseball enthusiasts out there that scour the internet for fantasy baseball advice. Who knows, maybe you will find this blog insightful, maybe not. I am open to taking questions or looking into certain players for people. It is a hobby of mine.
What to expect: Very in-depth look at players. I know many sites incorporate certain data points, but I like to include almost everything you can think of to make an informed decision.
Here is the league average on certain data points (plate discipline, exit velocities, and barrels) for hitters.
If you are a beginner to data, let me explain the data points I have included. Some of the ones that may be confusing to interpret are Z-Swing% which is how often a batter swings at a pitch inside of the strike zone, while O-Swing% is how many times a batter swings at a pitch outside of the zone. I have included launch angle and exit velocity due to the league moving into this direction. Barrels/BBE is a relatively new data point that stands for "barrels per batted ball event." Basically, in layman's terms, the more you connect with the ball with barrel of your bat, the better! Link to statcast explaining barrel zone
So with that out of the way - let's get digging! First position I want to look into is 1B.
Once the "big boppers" are off the board, we are always searching for someone that can do a lot of good in more than one category. First, I like to do a blind analysis on two players, just giving their stats, no names. First let us look at their full season stats from 2018.
From this first table, we can see in bold the league average for everyone of these categories. Player A is first, and Player B is second. Both players are patient hitters, as shown by their elite BB%. This is backed up by their low O-Swing% (swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone) and SwStk% (swing and misses), again both below league average. If you are playing in an OBP league, these two hitters would make excellent choices due to their great plate discipline. Yes, Player B strikes out more than league average, but we will get to that later. However, let us keep digging.
Both players are below league average when it comes to hitting ground ball. This is good since anything above average could play into the "shift" that so many teams employ nowadays.
Next, we can see where these two hitters start to take separate paths. First let us look at Player A. Their launch angle, exit velocity, percentage of hits with an E.V. above 95 mph, and Barrels/BBE are all slightly above the average. Good, but nothing special.
Player B though does these things pretty great. When today's game is predicated on launch angle, this is important stat for fantasy. However, just having a high launch angle doesn't translate into a having a great fantasy game (looking at you Christian Villanueva). What Player B does so well is that he hits the ball....hard! His barrels per batted ball event is WAY above league average. Also, almost half of his hits are over 95 mph as well which is also good, but when you combine all that with a fly ball percentage that is doubled compared to league average, then you are going to have a lot of baseballs leaving the park. We just took a look at plate discipline combined with exit velocities and barrels. If we are keeping score in the data department, Player B has 1, Player A has 0.
Now let us take a look at their Batted Ball data.
If we look at this table and break down the data, we can see that Player B had an insane HR/FB ratio. Is this sustainable? Probably not. However, it wasn't like they had a small sample size for us to go off of, this was almost a whole year worth of at bats. Almost 500. I don't think the percentage will completely fall of and be league average, but I do think that with their excellent plate discipline and strong tendency to hit the ball to all fields, it can continue to among the league best for 1B. We also have the data to back up their exit velocity as they do not hit the ball softly. They are well below league average in making soft contact.
Player A has a below average HR/FB ratio, but they also can spray the ball all over the field. If we go back to the first chart however, they do not barrel the ball among the league's best. What this means is they are a great line drive hitter capable of hitting the ball into the gaps. Their line drive percentage is above league average so this correlates with not barreling up the ball. Even though this player was hurt last year for a period of time, they were still able to make the top 10 in hits for their position. To put it in perspective, they had 48 less hits than the leader, but with 115 less at bats. Pretty impressive.
If you are looking for a player with more "pop" in their bat, then Player B is your guy. If you have a team with a lot of power hitters, Player A might be your man due to his overall feel for hitting. He led all 1B last year with the lowest soft contact%. You know what he will give you - high avg/OBP, hits, and depending on the team they play for: runs and RBI totals. Player B has 1.5, Player A has .5
OK, this is the last chart, I promise. With this chart, we dig a little bit deeper with Expected Outcomes. According to Statcast, Expected Outcomes help to remove defense and ballpark from the equation to express the skill shown at the moment of batted ball contact. So the Expected Outcomes can show quality of and amount of contact.
Now the announcement of Player A and Player B. Player A is Joey Votto and Player B is Max Muncy.
So you might be thinking...why these players? Well Joey Votto is always ranked in top 10 if not top 6 in 1B rankings. I get it, he has a proven track record and one down season shouldn't sway his ranking so much. Max Muncy? He is all over the map. Sometimes top 10, top 15, and sometimes not even top 20! The justification of this post is that Muncy deserves more love and quite frankly we have to wonder if Father Time is catching up to Votto. I no longer believe he is going to hit 30 + homers, but the rankings should reflect this. I can see him hitting 18-23 homers with better counting stats due to a better lineup around him this year. You know you can count on him being a high AVG/OBP guy which is always a plus. When it comes to drafting a player, I want upside and Muncy has more upside than Votto. I think Muncy can easily replicate his homer total from last year of 35. He has the plate discipline, great exit velocities, and approach to do it. Although he won't have the same OBP as Votto, he will still be solid in this department as he is above league average in taking walks. Again, it comes down to what you want and/or need. I think you can get Muncy for a lot cheaper than Votto and the other top 1B on the board. This is the type of steal that I am looking for.
References:
www.fangraphs.com
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard
www.wikipedia.com
www.fangraphs.com
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard
www.wikipedia.com
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