Nitpicking: Analyzing the Top 5 - First Base
Do you ever wonder what separates the top 5 players at any position? Why do some people rank Freddie Freeman 1st and Rhys Hoskins 4th? Can they be interchangeable? Or why are some people high on one certain player and not others? When I look at rankings from various websites I think to myself, "What really separates these guys in the top 5?" For example, when I did my series on overvalued/undervalued players, Anthony Rendon stood out as a very solid player. Above average in almost everything, near elite in some aspects. Do I ever find him in top 3 in rankings? No, but 3B is loaded, I understand this, but for me, he deserves to be up there. Anywho, let's get on with it. Let's analyze the data on the top 5 first baseman that are usually in all or most of the websites top 5.
In my chart I used the players initials to signify who they are. The players are Goldschmidt, Freeman, Rizzo, Bellinger, and Hoskins.
First, we will look at their plate discipline and exit velocities.
I can see why these guys are top 5 at their position. Well Goldschmidt, Freeman, and Rizzo always seem to be a lock for top 3, but the other two spots are usually interchangeable. As far as plate discipline goes, Anthony Rizzo leads the way with the best BB/K ratio of 0.88 with the next closest being Rhys Hoskins at 0.58. To be honest, I would have never guessed that Rhys Hoskins would be second, but I guess that happens when you just go off of name value for things.
One stat that jumps out at you is Freddie Freeman's insane Z-Swing% of 85.1. It easily leads all 1B with the next being Yonder Alonso at 75.2%. That is very impressive. We like to see this because it means if the pitch is in the zone, chances are he is putting it in play. Maybe that is why he led all 1B in hits last year and its always up there with the most RBI.
To me, seeing Rhys Hoskins only swing at 60% of the pitches he sees in the zone is not very ideal. I know he is young and has only one full year under his belt, but I am hoping that number goes in his second full year. If he can swing and make contact with more pitches in the zone, his numbers could go up and his ranking as well.
Looking at their exit velocities, I can't help but be enamored with the potential Rhys Hoskins has. His launch angle is ridiculous and he often gets the barrel on the ball. If he can make contact more with pitches in the zone, he could be scary good. Real scary.
Paul Goldschmidt is a beast. The guy has a great eye at the plate and crushes the ball when he makes contact with it. He leads this group in exit velocity, exit velocity over 95 mph, and Barrels/BBE. I can't blame anyone who put this guy number 1 due to the data on this chart alone.
Now we will move onto their Batted Ball data.
When you see a player that has a year with a BABIP as high as Freeman's or Goldschmidt's you start telling yourself that that number will come down, they are due for regression. Well, it isn't. Those numbers are quite close to their career average, which shows you how good they are. Remember when Rizzo started off last year so bad that everyone wanted to trade him? Well, I think we all needed a dose of patience because every one of his statistical categories from last year were around his career averages. The top 3 are an essential lock with Goldy, Freddie, and Rizzo. You can see why. They are consistent, they are elite.
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So what about the other two? Are they locks for the last two spots? Well first, we do have some small sample sizes to go off of, but since we are nitpicking, I would personally like to see Bellinger increase his line drive percentage. He plays in such a dominant lineup that if he could find a way to trade pop ups for line drives like the top 3, his counting stats would go up. Same goes for Hoskins too. Due to his launch angle, he sacrifices line drives for fly balls, but when you hit 35 + homers, do people really care? I personally would sacrifice a few homers for an increase in counting stats
and hopefully this can happen with him.
Last, we look at their Expected Outcomes.
As I stated before, the top 3 are absolute studs when it comes to fantasy. This table shows how much better they were than league average. However, it is a different story when you get to Bellinger and Hoskins. If you play in a league where you count BA instead of OBP, these two would hurt you in this category. To have an xBA of .236 and .231 for them respectively is not something to be thrilled about. If you play in an OBP league, then I wouldn't worry. They still provided above average SLG and wOBA. If I had to rank these guys, I would go in this order:
In my chart I used the players initials to signify who they are. The players are Goldschmidt, Freeman, Rizzo, Bellinger, and Hoskins.
First, we will look at their plate discipline and exit velocities.
I can see why these guys are top 5 at their position. Well Goldschmidt, Freeman, and Rizzo always seem to be a lock for top 3, but the other two spots are usually interchangeable. As far as plate discipline goes, Anthony Rizzo leads the way with the best BB/K ratio of 0.88 with the next closest being Rhys Hoskins at 0.58. To be honest, I would have never guessed that Rhys Hoskins would be second, but I guess that happens when you just go off of name value for things.One stat that jumps out at you is Freddie Freeman's insane Z-Swing% of 85.1. It easily leads all 1B with the next being Yonder Alonso at 75.2%. That is very impressive. We like to see this because it means if the pitch is in the zone, chances are he is putting it in play. Maybe that is why he led all 1B in hits last year and its always up there with the most RBI.
To me, seeing Rhys Hoskins only swing at 60% of the pitches he sees in the zone is not very ideal. I know he is young and has only one full year under his belt, but I am hoping that number goes in his second full year. If he can swing and make contact with more pitches in the zone, his numbers could go up and his ranking as well.
Looking at their exit velocities, I can't help but be enamored with the potential Rhys Hoskins has. His launch angle is ridiculous and he often gets the barrel on the ball. If he can make contact more with pitches in the zone, he could be scary good. Real scary.
Paul Goldschmidt is a beast. The guy has a great eye at the plate and crushes the ball when he makes contact with it. He leads this group in exit velocity, exit velocity over 95 mph, and Barrels/BBE. I can't blame anyone who put this guy number 1 due to the data on this chart alone.
Now we will move onto their Batted Ball data.
When you see a player that has a year with a BABIP as high as Freeman's or Goldschmidt's you start telling yourself that that number will come down, they are due for regression. Well, it isn't. Those numbers are quite close to their career average, which shows you how good they are. Remember when Rizzo started off last year so bad that everyone wanted to trade him? Well, I think we all needed a dose of patience because every one of his statistical categories from last year were around his career averages. The top 3 are an essential lock with Goldy, Freddie, and Rizzo. You can see why. They are consistent, they are elite.So what about the other two? Are they locks for the last two spots? Well first, we do have some small sample sizes to go off of, but since we are nitpicking, I would personally like to see Bellinger increase his line drive percentage. He plays in such a dominant lineup that if he could find a way to trade pop ups for line drives like the top 3, his counting stats would go up. Same goes for Hoskins too. Due to his launch angle, he sacrifices line drives for fly balls, but when you hit 35 + homers, do people really care? I personally would sacrifice a few homers for an increase in counting statsand hopefully this can happen with him.
Last, we look at their Expected Outcomes.
As I stated before, the top 3 are absolute studs when it comes to fantasy. This table shows how much better they were than league average. However, it is a different story when you get to Bellinger and Hoskins. If you play in a league where you count BA instead of OBP, these two would hurt you in this category. To have an xBA of .236 and .231 for them respectively is not something to be thrilled about. If you play in an OBP league, then I wouldn't worry. They still provided above average SLG and wOBA. If I had to rank these guys, I would go in this order:
1. Paul Goldschmidt - He has power, speed for a 1B (dwindling), and great counting stats.
2. Freddie Freeman - Great eye and contact skills who will provide a solid all around game.
3. Anthony Rizzo - Another player who will provide great OBP with great stats with the team he is on.
4. Rhys Hoskins - Power is his game, but he can still get better which is scary.
5. Cody Bellinger - Has to work on his contact skills, but does a little bit of everything, especially the added bonus of steals.
I will provide data and analysis on the back end of the top 10 - players 6-10. Could any of them crack top 5? Stay tuned.
References:
www.fangraphs.com
www.baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboards
www.wikipedia.com
I will provide data and analysis on the back end of the top 10 - players 6-10. Could any of them crack top 5? Stay tuned.
References:
www.fangraphs.com
www.baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboards
www.wikipedia.com
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