Nitpicking: Analyzing the Top 5 - Second Base

Second base has some decent depth and outside of the top 3 or 4, the fifth spot in the top 5 was a revolving door.  Again, in this series, I am going to break down the top 5 second baseman based on the rankings they get from websites to see if we can find any alarming trends or possibly some gold to show you all.  Without further adieu, here are the top 5 that I chose based on the rankings:

Jose Altuve, Javier Baez, Whit Merrifield, Ozzie Albies, and Scooter Gennett.

The first chart we will look at is their plate discipline and exit velocities.

	BB%	K%	BB/K	Z-Swing%	O-Swing%	SwStk%	LA (degrees)	EV 95 MPH+	E.V (mph)	Barrels/BBE
Avg.	8.5	22	0.39	67	30.5	10.6	12.3	34.3	87.1	6.4
J.A	9.2	13.2	0.70	68.7	33.3	7.8	9.5	33.8	86.3	5.9
J.B	4.5	25.9	0.17	78	45.5	18.2	9.2	43	89.6	12.6
W.M	8.6	16.1	0.53	67.7	32.9	8.4	16.6	31	86.5	4.6
O.A	5.3	17	0.31	82.3	38.2	11.5	15.4	29.4	86.3	4.7
S.G	6.6	19.6	0.34	73.1	38.3	9.5	13.2	31.9	86.7	6

The first stat that I like to look at is the BB/K ratio.  Jose Altuve is known for having a great eye at the plate and his 0.70 ratio was second best for all 2B.  Merrifield also was in the top 10, coming in at #9 with his ratio of 0.53.  The fact that Javier Baez is almost doubled below the league average is not good because if he doesn't put the ball in play, you know he is not going to take a walk.  He is going down swinging as shown by his super high chase rate and swinging strike rate.  The thing with Ozzie Albies is he is young enough to where we can hope he improves his BB/K ratio.  If he can get his walks up and lower his chase rate, he will be more successful.  His Z-Swing% is great as he recognized pitches in the zone and takes swings at them.  However, pitchers know that he will chase and they can get away with throwing pitches out of the zone, know that he will chase.  He is an aggressive hitter that hopefully can develop some patience.  Scooter Gennett is another player that likes to chase pitches and that maybe be his only knock to his plate discipline.  Maybe he is getting power hungry, but his O-Swing% increased 5% points since last year, something that I hope he can correct.  He has made improvement with his BB/K as he as upped this ratio over the past few years.

 Javier Baez sets himself apart when it comes to power for a 2B.  This is his calling card.  Even with his below average launch angle, he is able to get the barrel on the ball and drive it out of the park as shown with his above average exit velocity.  His exit velocity on balls over 95 mph also outshine the others as he hits the ball with authority.  Imagine if he could increase his launch angle.....I can't.  Ozzie Albies and Whit Merrifield really don't hit the ball hard enough if you look at their numbers.  Both are well below league average.  They play in hitter's parks so that helps their cause, but maybe not with the HR. 

Let's move on to their Batted Ball data.

	BABIP	GB%	FB%	LD%	HR/FB%	Pull%	Center%	Oppo%	Soft%	Med%	Hard%
Avg.	.300	44.9	22.7	25.1	10	40	35	25	20	50	30
J.A	.352	46	30	24	9.6	41.4	38.6	20	16.6	50.1	33.3
J.B	.347	45.6	32.3	22.1	24.3	40.5	33.3	26.1	19.4	44.8	35.8
W.M	.352	34.9	35.3	29.8	6.5	33.7	35.4	31	15.4	47.7	36.9
O.A	.285	38.8	39.9	21.3	11.5	44.8	31.1	24.1	16.3	49.3	34.4
S.G	.358	40.1	36.2	23.6	13.8	40.5	32.1	27.4	15.6	45.6	38.8

So Jose Altuve is kind of a conundrum.  His two seasons where he hit 20+ HR, he had an inflated HR/FB compared to his career averages.  Last year he was closer to his norm at 9.6%. He did hit 13 HR, but you have to wonder.  Is this more in line of what he can do?  Or was his knee bothering him?  I am definitely going to be watching him this year to see what his number show us now that he is finally healthy.  Ozzie Albies had such a sensational start to the year last year that we all thought he was going to win the MVP award after his sensational 1st half. We don't have a large sample size with him, but his HR/FB% was at 15%, which is higher than league average.  However, the 2nd half is when the wheels came off.  His HR/FB% dropped to a putrid 5.6%, well below league average.  All his plate

discipline numbers from the 1st half were relatively the same in the 2nd half.   His BABIP dropped significantly so maybe there was some bad luck on his side.  He is young and talented so I think he will be able to figure it out.  

Whit Merrifield.  You just don't know when to go away.  Everyone says, "This is year his luck runs out." Well he upped his line drive rate while decreasing his ground pall percentage.  But wait there is more..he upped his walk rate too!  Now he gets on base a lot, which helps because he likes to run.  You go Whit.  Keep proving them all wrong.  Is there a catch?  Yes. He plays for the Royals.  Damn it. So even though Whit can run and steal..that is about all he will give you.  Look at he putrid launch angle.  EESH.

Last we have the Expected Outcomes chart.

	BABIP	BA	xBA	OBP	SLG	xSLG	wOBA	xwOBA	wRC+
Avg.	.300	.248	.243	.318	.409	.396	.315	.311	100
J.A	.352	.316	.286	.386	.451	.445	.364	.349	135
J.B	.347	.290	.264	.326	.554	.491	.349	.338	131
W.M	.352	.304	.278	.367	.438	.423	.349	.340	120
O.A	.285	.261	.247	.305	.452	.396	.324	.300	100
S.G	.358	.310	.258	.357	.490	.405	.362	.311	125

Well if you play in a league that uses BA, then Albies is not your guy.  His xBA is just about league average, but for a top 5 player at their position, I want someone who can do better than that.  A lot of Scooter's expected outcomes drop drastically as well, maybe showing he had some luck on his side last year.  His xwOBA is league average so maybe this is the year where he starts fading away.  I hope not.  We need a guy with the name Scooter to be relevant.  Don't ask me why. We just do.

I do feel that Baez had some luck too.  I know people like him because he can hit and run...and he is in the spotlight, but he to I feel is going to have a drop off.

If I had to rank these guys and it depends on the league your in, it would look like this.

1. Jose Altuve - As I mentioned before, this is a big year for him.  He is healthy so I am curious if he can replicate his stats from '16 and '17.  He plays in a big time offense so he can still produce.  Will he steal as much?  That is a huge question mark.

2. Javier Baez - I don't love this rank, but like Altuve he plays in big time offense and a decent hitter's park in Wrigley.  This is a guy who has a career BA of .267 and I think that he will be close to that number again this year, probably a .275 hitter.   Also, his career ISO is .203 and last year he had an ISO of .264.  I'm just saying, he is due to regress.  But then again, he has upside with being a free swinger.  If you draft other players around him with high BA or OBP, you will be fine. 

3. Whit Merrifield - OK, I know that he plays for the stinking Royals, but he can give you steals and a high OBP.  I could live with that.  But I am going to make sure to draft guys around him that can get runs and other counting stats.  If he didn't play for the Royals....

4.  Scooter Gennett - He plays in a great park and will more than likely come close to his totals from last year.  Or he peaked already.  I just think he had more luck on his side last year. 

5. Ozzie Albies - He is young and talented, but I need to see more.  Where will his HR/FB% be this year?  Will he hit 20 HR or 8 HR?  Time will tell, but he needs to be more selective at the plate otherwise his BA will be the death of him in leagues.

References:

www.fangraphs.com

www.baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboards

www.wikipedia.com