Digging for Gold: Analyzing Data for Undervalued Players - Third Base
Just like shortstop, third base is quite loaded as well. You can go through the list and see that any of the top 15 available would probably be OK. However, today I want to to do a blind analysis with three players. I know that a lot of these players are like splitting hairs, but being able to choose the right one based on your needs/wants is super important. I have been in situations before where I had to make a choice between a few players and it was tough. I would choose one only to realize that I liked the other player better. Due to these tough choices, let's start analyzing!
In this first chart we will look at each player's plate discipline and exit velocities.
With this last chart, I think we can make a solid decision which player ranks the best out of this group. Player C xSLG and xwOBA both go up! Many times you see players expected outcomes go down or go up ever so slightly. As a matter of fact, he was the top 3B in both of these categories, impressive indeed! Player B is very good as well and I wouldn't shy away from him. He finished in the top 5 in these categories as well. Very solid player. However, Player A makes me a little nervous. everyone of his expected outcomes drops significantly. I think this year he regresses, but still has a good year.
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OK, time for the player reveal. Player A is Javier Baez, Player B is Eugenio Suarez, and Player C is Anthony Rendon. In almost everyone of the rankings you look at, Javier Baez is almost exclusively in the top 5. I understand that he can steal bases and he is eligible at multiple positions, but I still don't want any shares of him. I think that he is overvalued and owners will be disappointed this year if they invest highly in him. With that being said, I want all the shares of Anthony Rendon that I can get. I think that his data backs up his play and to me he is a top 3 third baseman. Sometimes I see him in the 5-7 range, but I still think that is too low. Eugenio Suarez is someone that is towards the back end up the top 10, but I still view him as someone that is more close to the top 5. Hope this helps with your drafting needs and maybe you can narrow your focus down to certain categories.
In this first chart we will look at each player's plate discipline and exit velocities.
If you go through each category, player by player, you will notice Player A has some weaknesses. They are well below league average in BB%, above league average in striking out, and their chase rate on pitches outside of the zone is WAY above league average. One good thing we can take away is that they can put the barrel on the ball and combine that with the fact that almost half their hits come off the bat 95 mph or more, good things can happen.
Player B is more consistent with an above average BB% and a low chase rate on pitches outside of the zone. They have a good eye at the plate which is good because they hit the ball hard. Combine that with their above average launch angle and strong exit velocities, we have something good here.
Player C demonstrates the best ability to recognize pitches as shown by their low K% and SwStk%. They are able to put the ball in play and with the above average launch angle, exit velocity, and barrels/BBE, we have a very good hitter on our hands, almost elite.
Based on this data so far, I would go with Player C, followed by Player B.
Next, we will move on to their Batted Ball data.
All three batters have an above average BABIP, but both Player A and Player B HR/FB% are extremely high compared to the norm. Truly, I do not think this is sustainable. With that being said, their home run totals would come down, but not by a lot. The nice thing about Player A is that they can spray the ball around which helps them keep their BABIP up. You can't play any type of shift on them.
Overall from this data, I like what I see from Player C the best. His HR/FB% is highly sustainable and I can see it even go up based on the data. Both Player B and Player C have strong Med and Hard contact rates and again, combined with their exit velocities from earlier, this is a very good thing.
Last, let us look at their Expected Outcomes.
With this last chart, I think we can make a solid decision which player ranks the best out of this group. Player C xSLG and xwOBA both go up! Many times you see players expected outcomes go down or go up ever so slightly. As a matter of fact, he was the top 3B in both of these categories, impressive indeed! Player B is very good as well and I wouldn't shy away from him. He finished in the top 5 in these categories as well. Very solid player. However, Player A makes me a little nervous. everyone of his expected outcomes drops significantly. I think this year he regresses, but still has a good year. OK, time for the player reveal. Player A is Javier Baez, Player B is Eugenio Suarez, and Player C is Anthony Rendon. In almost everyone of the rankings you look at, Javier Baez is almost exclusively in the top 5. I understand that he can steal bases and he is eligible at multiple positions, but I still don't want any shares of him. I think that he is overvalued and owners will be disappointed this year if they invest highly in him. With that being said, I want all the shares of Anthony Rendon that I can get. I think that his data backs up his play and to me he is a top 3 third baseman. Sometimes I see him in the 5-7 range, but I still think that is too low. Eugenio Suarez is someone that is towards the back end up the top 10, but I still view him as someone that is more close to the top 5. Hope this helps with your drafting needs and maybe you can narrow your focus down to certain categories.
References:
www.fangraphs.com
www.baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboards
www.wikipedia.com
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