Digging for Gold: Analyzing Data for Undervalued Players - Outfield

For this post, I will not be analyzing any OF1 candidates because this is a position of depth.   We all know that many of the top 6 outfield or even top 10 can be a solid OF1.  I will eventually do a post on on the top 10 where we can narrow down the data to see who might have an edge over the other.  Right now I am looking at the fringe outfielders ranked on websites in the 30s or higher who can be solid OF3 or even and OF2 depending on format and the team you assembled.  Let's start digging!

The area I want to dig into is the players' plate discipline and exit velocities.

	BB%	K%	Z-Swing%	O-Swing%	SwStk%	LA (degrees)	EV 95 MPH+	E.V (mph)	Barrels/BBE	GB%	FB%	LD%
Avg.	8.5	22	67	30.5	10.6	12.3	34.3	87.1	6.4	44.9	22.7	25.1
A.	10.3	19.7	68.5	25.5	9.6	9.5	37.2	88.7	8.9	49.4	34.6	16
B.	10.4	28.7	66.4	24.9	12.2	11.8	47.4	90.8	14	42.4	35.8	21.8
C.	13.9	21.3	64.1	19.4	8.2	13.4	41.3	90	8.4	41.3	35.7	23

Player B doesn't have as good as plate discipline as Player A or C as shown by their above average K% and SwStk%.  Nothing new here, this player has always been above average in their career in these categories, but luckily they do have an above average BB% that offsets their swing and miss tendencies.  Both Player A and C had their plate disciplines improve from their career averages as their SwStk% are down and their O-Swing% and Z-Swing%.  You might think this is a good thing as they are being more patient and not chasing pitches out of the zone.  However, they both swung at less pitches in the strike zone.  The downside to leaving pitches in the zone can result in less hits. 

Player A doesn't have a very good launch angle and has a modest exit velocity that is slightly above league average at 88.7 mph.  Fortunately for them, they are able to barrel up the ball better than league average which helps.  Both Player B and C have good exit velocities, but Player B is in top 20 in the league when it comes to getting the "sweet spot" of the bat on the ball.  Their Barrels/BBE is more than doubled than league average and this helps them with hitting HR at the plate.

Player C doesn't do anything spectacular, but they are above average in most categories: LA, exit velocity, and Barrels/BBE.  Combine that with their above average BB%, chase rate, and SwStr% and you have yourself a pretty darn good ball player.

Now let us take a look at their Batted Ball data.

	BABIP	GB%	FB%	LD%	HR/FB%	Pull%	Center%	Oppo%	Soft%	Med%	Hard%
Avg.	.300	44.9	22.7	25.1	10	40	35	25	20	50	30
A.	.303	49.4	34.6	16	15	39.8	36.9	23.3	17.7	48.9	33.4
B.	.321	42.4	35.8	21.8	23.1	46.6	32.5	20.9	16.8	39.4	43.8
C.	.304	41.3	35.7	23	13	43.9	36.4	19.7	13.5	43.2	43.4

One thing that I notice with Player A is they hit a lot of ground balls and pop ups.  They are above league average in GB% and FB%, but well below league average in hitting line drives.  Sometimes this can lead to easy outs.  Another thing that is alarming about Player A is that every year their GB% keeps increasing, while their LD% keeps decreasing.  This is not good.  This leads to more outs and a weaker AVG/OBP.

Player B has a very high HR/FB ratio which is WAY above his career average.  For his career, his HR/FB ratio sits at 16.7%.  However, he plays in a park that is hitter friendly, so I can see this ratio being higher than his career average.  He also a hard hit % that is way above league average as well so when you combine all these factors (high FB%, hard hit%, and HR/FB ratio) you have a very good power hitter.

I like Player C, I really do.  He does everything pretty good.  He has a good hard hit% and FB%, an above average HR/FB% and slightly below league average in hitting line drives.  His hard hit% is above his career average, but the trade off was hitting less fly balls (lower percentage than his career average) for more line drives.  I will take that.

Here is our last chart on their Expected Outcomes.

	BABIP	BA	xBA	OBP	SLG	xSLG	wOBA	xwOBA	wRC+
Avg.	.300	.248	.243	.318	.409	.396	.315	.311	100
A.	.303	.265	.254	.346	.434	.453	.340	.343	119
B.	.321	.257	.250	.344	.463	.463	.348	.352	124
c.	.304	.255	.260	.368	.439	.452	.337	.348	120

What I like from this last chart is that even though Player C had a pretty good year in 2018, he could have been better.  I think what we saw from his last year can be replicated.  Player B we know has a low BA, but is a power hitter with good SLG and wOBA and their respected xSLG and xwOBA.  Player A should have had a better SLG% based on the data, but overall they were pretty align with their actual percentages.  

OK, time for our player reveal.  Player A is George Springer, Player B is Justin Upton, and Player C is Andrew McCutchen.  I really don't think George Springer is going to have a year like he did in 2017 when he hit 34 long balls.  Based on the data, I think he is a 20-24 HR hitter who offers little in the way of BA and SB.  Right now his ADP is roughly #10.  To me, I will pass on him all day and get him later if I can.  I think he is WAY overvalued. 

Justin Upton has an ADP of #16 which to me is too low.  I know there are many talented outfielders but Upton has hit over 30 HR the last few years and we know what we are going to get from him.  I would take him before Springer in a heartbeat.  

Lastly, we have my sleeper.  Will I probably reach for him? Yes.  Andrew McCutchen will more than likely give a better BA and OBP than these two players and he gets to play his games now in Citizen Bank Park, a very friendly hitter's park.  I think with the retooled lineup they have, McCutchen can hit 20+ homers with pretty good counting stats especially runs.  Not bad for a player with an ADP in the upper 20's.  I would easily pass on Springer for him later in the draft, while building up on other positions of need. 

References: 

www.fangraphs.com

www.wikipedia.com

www.baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboards

www.baseball-reference.com