Digging for Gold: Analyzing Data for Undervalued Players - Catchers
I think we know that the catching position in fantasy is pretty bad for the most part. Besides a few players, we are left scrambling for someone to fill our spot on our team, hoping they will be OK. Well what if there are a few players that can take their game to the next level? Who knows! If we can get someone to outperform expectations, then that is a gem! Let's see if we can dig up a few!
As always, we will be doing a blind analysis on three catchers. With that being said, let's go!
This first chart takes a look at plate discipline and exit velocities.
If we are comparing everything to league average, then Player B is the only player to be under in one category which is xBA, but by only .002% points. OK, nitpicking, but hey. The data shows that Player A and Player C should have had an xBA way below than what they had. Also, their xSLG and xwOBA drop down too, below league average. If it is me, I am not too much of a fan, but if I am choosing a catcher out of those two, it is Player C.
OK, time for our player reveal. Player A is Willson Contreras, Player B is Francisco Cervelli, and Player C was Jorge Alfaro. If we look at the ADP for all players, just with catchers, Contreras is #3, Cervelli #11, and Alfaro is #15. Contreras in my opinion is massively overvalued. I would not by any means reach for him in drafts. Everything last year has been in line with his career averages, except his HR/FB% dropped drastically to 9.3%. Will he hit 20+ homers again? No, I don't think so. I think we can expect him to hit between 10-13 HR and if you are banking on his 2017 to happen again, you might be dreaming for a long time.
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Alfaro is someone who again, maybe you are banking on the lineup he is, the park that he calls home, but I just don't see him as someone I would want to take on my team. He is not proficient enough in any category to make me want him gamble on. He will hurt you with a low BA and OBP and will make a dent in the HR category. Maybe 10-13. He is a better real life catcher than fantasy and you should avoid him come draft day.
As always, we will be doing a blind analysis on three catchers. With that being said, let's go!
This first chart takes a look at plate discipline and exit velocities.
Player A on this chart has an above average BB%, but what kind of offsets that is that they have an above average chase rate. What I don't like to see is their low launch angle combined with a pedestrian exit velocity. We are accustomed to catchers providing some pop and if you take this approach, Player A would not fit you needs.
Player B has very good plate discipline based on their above average BB%, low SwStk%, and low K% compared to the rest of the league. What concerns me is that they are leaving pitches in the zone as shown by their low Z-Swing%, pitches that we would like to be swung at. They have an above average launch angle and almost 40% of their hits come off the bat at over 95 mph.
Player C, well, yikes. They have a well below league average BB% and they are WAY above league average when it comes to K% and Swstk%. They swing at a lot of pitches within the zone, but they also swing at everything outside of the zone. Put it this way, they never see a pitch they don't like. Is there anything to like? Well, yes. They hit the ball hard when they do make contact as shown by there high exit velocity and percent of balls they hit over 95 mph which is 44% of the time. They are able to barrel up on the ball, so good things can happen when they do make contact.
Next, let us look at their Batted Ball data.
All players have a higher than average BABIP, but Player C has had some luck last year as his was a whopping .406! Expect that number to come down this year. What I also do not like to see is that Player A and C both hit above league average when it came to ground balls. With Player C being a free swinger who hits the ball hard, you like to see those balls be lifted, but he has a poor launch angle which leads to balls staying in the park and unfortunately balls being hit on the ground. Player A doesn't really do anything particularly well, except possibly hit the ball around the field. I do not like to see the below league average in hard hit% and med% especially from a catcher, but this doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in this player.
Player B on the other hand has an above average hard and med hit % and they almost double the league average in FB%. I like that especially combined with their launch angle and slightly above average in exit velocity and Barrels/BBE.
Next, we will move onto the last chart on Expected Outcomes.
If we are comparing everything to league average, then Player B is the only player to be under in one category which is xBA, but by only .002% points. OK, nitpicking, but hey. The data shows that Player A and Player C should have had an xBA way below than what they had. Also, their xSLG and xwOBA drop down too, below league average. If it is me, I am not too much of a fan, but if I am choosing a catcher out of those two, it is Player C.
OK, time for our player reveal. Player A is Willson Contreras, Player B is Francisco Cervelli, and Player C was Jorge Alfaro. If we look at the ADP for all players, just with catchers, Contreras is #3, Cervelli #11, and Alfaro is #15. Contreras in my opinion is massively overvalued. I would not by any means reach for him in drafts. Everything last year has been in line with his career averages, except his HR/FB% dropped drastically to 9.3%. Will he hit 20+ homers again? No, I don't think so. I think we can expect him to hit between 10-13 HR and if you are banking on his 2017 to happen again, you might be dreaming for a long time.
Cervelli in my opinion is solid catcher who really won't hurt you in any categories. I don't know if it is his age (32) that scares people away or that he isn't flashy, but he sure is consistent. I think that he can provide you with a solid OBP and average from the catcher position. Even though PNC Park is not a favorable place for HR, I still think he can provide between 9-12 which is not bad if you plan accordingly in your draft. Draft some big boppers and the other positions and fall back on Cervelli. You will not be disappointed.
Alfaro is someone who again, maybe you are banking on the lineup he is, the park that he calls home, but I just don't see him as someone I would want to take on my team. He is not proficient enough in any category to make me want him gamble on. He will hurt you with a low BA and OBP and will make a dent in the HR category. Maybe 10-13. He is a better real life catcher than fantasy and you should avoid him come draft day.
References:
www.fangraphs.com
www.wikipedia.com
www.baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboards
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